Lindy Li's Oblivirony -- Democrats got donors to donate by convincing them that Kamala would win

Democratic Party operative Lindy Li made the news last Saturday (11/9) by appearing on “Fox & Friends Weekend” to whine about how she had been misled into thinking that Kamala Harris was going to win, which caused her in turn to mislead her friends into donating money to the campaign.  Here's the quote that got me:

“Jen O’Malley Dillon promised all of us that Harris would win. She even put videos out that Harris would win. I believed her, my donors believed her and so they wrote massive checks.  I just feel like a lot of us were misled.”

In other words, Lindy's friends wrote the massive checks because they had been convinced that Kamala would win, and that they'd be amply "repaid" (in terms of influence) after the election. 

It's hard to feel too sorry for them.

Of course, this is what campaign finance at the "massive" level is all about.  Perhaps the well-publicized fact that Kamala raised and spent a billion dollars (more than double what Trump raised and spent) helps explain her loss -- voters knew that she was going to have to pay all of that back many times over to special interests, at the expense of everyone else. 

BTW this may be the first and last English language use of the portmanteau "oblivirony."  I was trying to find a word meaning "lacking self-awareness" and nothing good came up; most of what came up just missed the point (e.g. "unselfconscious[ness]").  Oblivirony is derived from the expression "oblivious to the irony," which is what Lindy Li was here.

(The accent is on the second syllable, and thus the "i" in "irony" is barely pronounced.)  

Since I'm writing, I'll just say one last thing or two about the election.  I've heard a lot of stupid things said, but also a lot of intelligent things.  My best synthesis is this:

The democrats should blame themselves over and over again for: (1) selecting Hillary over Sanders in 2016; (2) selecting Biden over Sanders in 2020; (3) selecting Biden over anyone else in 2024; and (4) covering up Biden's mental decline until it couldn't be covered up any more.

The Obamas apparently bear some of the blame in each of these, but so do a lot others.

Biden himself deserves blame for not stepping down sooner and then for anointing Harris as his successor when (apparently) other democrats had let him know that they wanted a contest.  Let's hope he goes down in history as the egomaniacal hypocrite he is; although we should be remember that his dementia plays a role in everything he does, I can't help but think he believes that Harris's loss is evidence that the democrats should have stuck with him. 

I won't pile on to what others have said about Harris, but I agree with those who say she positions herself to advance herself, as opposed to any particular set of core views or values. 

And I also agree with those who say the Biden White House was run by faceless and unaccountable Democratic Party hacks, and the same would likely have been the case of the Harris White House.

So maybe one difference between 2020 and 2024 is that a lot of people in 2020 who were not crazy about Biden voted for him on the basis of "anyone but Trump," but by 2024 most of them had shifted to "anyone but Trump or another unprincipled Democratic Party corporate tool" and just stayed home.  And of course some of them just threw in a vote for Trump as an F-you to the Democratic Party.

Seems like it really is time for a new political party to stand up and get organized.  I've already heard Democratic Party strategists say that the country has moved to the right, so the Democrats should follow.  But that's idiotic.  It's really hard to say what's a "right" or a "left" issue any more -- e.g. some of the most important issues, like how to plan for the rise of artificial intelligence, how to reduce income and wealth inequality, how to lower drug prices and the cost of health care generally, and how to limit the ability of corporate greed to dictate government policy are not left/right issues.  And I'm not even sure that climate change, immigration and the proper role of the US military are left/right issues either.  

A new party could take the rational, pro-public interest positions all these issues, and leave its candidates free to choose on traditionally left/right issues.  And let's not let the concerns about a 3-party system get to us -- this would just be a new party, which would essentially render the Democratic Party irrelevant, bringing us right back to a 2-party system.  Isn't that what happened to the Federalist and Whig Parties?

Jill Biden as Power-Hungry Elder-Abusing Narcissist?

I guess this is old news but if you haven't heard it yet, you heard it here first.  After Thursday's debate, it became quite clear that what's keeping Biden in this race is his wife, Jill, who realizes that if Biden doesn't get reelected, the rest of her life is going to be spent either providing elder care for an increasingly feeble and out-of-touch husband, or else finding him a good nursing home and going on with her life teaching at community college.  

No more White House gatherings, dinners, speeches, interviews and the like.  No more proximity to power and none of the power that comes with it.   She does not want to give up that lifestyle, especially given what she's going to be exchanging it for.

Thinking back, Jill Biden has experienced the kind of life I'm talking about -- life with Joe from 2016 to 2020, when he was no longer even Vice President.  I'm guessing they still got invited to their share of parties, but it's just not the same.  And just hanging out with the gradually fading Joe at home was probably not exactly her cup of tea.

Today's papers report that Biden met with his "family" yesterday -- his closest and most trusted advisors -- and they've all advised him to run.  But of course they did -- losing the election was a risk that each of THEM was willing to take, since each of THEM (think Hunter as well as Jill; who else is there?) stands to gain from Joe's continued relevance and possible reelection.  

I have not tried to research whether there's an argument to be made that Jill Biden persuaded Joe to run for President in 2020.  I'm sure she supported it, but in that case, Biden probably was pretty sure he wanted it.  After all, he's been running for President since 1988 and this really did seem to be his big chance.  But after he got it, I have a feeling their interests diverged.  Joe had accomplished the greatest feat in American politics -- winning the presidency.  And he could have shown great statesmanship by announcing early on that he'd only be in it for one term, and reasonable statementmanship if he had stepped aside at any point thereafter.   

I'm guessing that if it had been up to him, he would have picked one of those options.  But it probably wasn't and he didn't.  And here we see that the Democratic hangers-on are no better than the Republican ones.  We jeer at the Republicans who sucked up to Trump and defended him in the media.  But now what about the Democrats?  What about all those people who really know and have experienced Biden first hand, but who neverless kept telling us how "sharp" and on the ball he was?  He may be on the ball enough to read a decent state of the union address off of a teleprompter, but anybody who actually spent time with him must have know that was about his limit.  

As we ourselves get older, we start observing how people are no longer as sharp as they once were.  I've seen lawyers who were brilliant and at the very top of their game in their 50s begin to start losing a step or two in their 60s already.  While some of my elderly relatives have remained reasonably sharp, they have lost much of the energy they still had in their 60s.  And of course, many others have not remained sharp -- it's the luck of the draw I guess.  And it only gets worse every year - there's a natural cognitive decline that comes with aging, even apart from the ever-present possibility of Alzheimers, dementia, strokes, and other "natural" causes.  Couldn't the Democrats see that?  

Does Jill Biden really get her way here?

I could be wrong about Jill Biden, and if so, I'm sorry.  I'm just calling it the way it seems.  And perhaps I'm basing it on a certain level of experience with other selfish, narcissistic women who have found themselves in the spotlight and can't imagine not living it in forever.  

I hope this doesn't sound sexist; rest assured I know there are men like that too.  But since Jill Biden is a woman she reminds me more of that kind of woman than that kind of man.  

In short, she is willing to put the man she supposedly loved for nearly 50 years through what promises to be four more months of stress and public humiliation as the campaign plods on, with the ultimate -- but increasingly unlikely -- goal of landing Joe in the White House for another four years, while it's quite clear that nearly every other person in the country would much prefer somebody else.  The only thing the Biden campaign has going for it is that there are a lot of never-Trumpers out there who truly believe that Trump will destroy what's left of the country.  That's what I am, but on the other hand, if this is what the country has come to, maybe that's just the way it ends.

PS  As many commentators have noted, Special Counsel Robert Hur observed first-hand the same sort of cognitive issues that we all saw at the debate back in February.  At the time, he was roundly attacked and accused of partisanship by Biden's defenders.  And Biden himself went after Hur for supposedly asking questions about Beau Biden's death (the year of which Biden couldn't remember) when in fact it was Biden himself who broached that topic, ironically in order to help himself pinpoint dates.  So even Biden's misguided attack on Hur may well have been based on his own inability to remember just what happened at the interview.  Thus, President Biden's very attempt to explain away evidence of his cognitive decline was itself more evidence of it.

If you've been reading up on this issue, you probably also know that Jill Biden was one of the President's staunchest defenders after the Hur interview, and that she sent off a fundraising email shortly thereafter, which apparently was very successful at raising funds.  The email is quoted in several places, but I could only find it reproduced on Twitter/X.  So for your convenience I'm reproducing it below:

Soon after this was sent, CNN said it was the "second most lucrative" fundraising appeal of the campaign).  If I had donated funds in response to this plea, I'd be asking for a refund right about now.

Simulation Theory as Explained by Artificial Intelligence

I'm having trouble understanding "simulation theory" and the people who think it has to be right, and that it inevitable means that there is only an infinitesimally small chance that we are living in an "actual" reality.  Nothing that I've read or heard (and admittedly I haven't read or listened all that closely) has been able to explain the theory clearly enough for me to even grasp it or how it could even be possible, much less almost certain.  

Proponents of the theory include Nick Bostrum (perhaps the originator of the modern verion), Elon Musk, and (sort of) Neil deGrasse Tyson.  The Tyson clip is the most interesting -- he first says it's a gazillion to one that we're in a simulation and then offers a rebuttal that if we're in a simulation, we're either in the first one of a gazillion, or we're in last one (and still evolving before we're going to produce our own simulation, and that the odds against us being there are a gazillion to one).  

Although I'm not impressed with the theory itself, I can't say I'm impressed with Tyson's "rebuttal" either, since it seems to suffer from a species of weak anthropic principle -- if it's "simulations all the way down," then each simulation experienced a phase similar to what we're experiencing now, and (if we don't annihilate ourselves and go on to make our own simulation) then there will potentially be a gazillion to follow.

I think I'm persuaded by Michio Kaku's refutation, which makes the point that to simulate the weather (or even simulate the motion of molecules in a goldfish bowl) you need to simulate the motion of trillions (gazillions really) of atoms, which requires a fabulous amount of information, and there's just no way a computer could possibly store and process all that information, especially after you add quantum mechanics into it, with its attendant uncertainty and the possibility of infinite universes.

As he sums up, it's "mathematically not possible to create a ficitonal universe out of atoms in a fictional way."

But for me it's even simpler than that, and I still don't even get why some intelligent people think it's so probable.  Yes, the universe is vast but we've seen no sign of intelligent life anywhere out there, which supports the theory that even if life becomes intelligent and makes a certain amount of progress, it inevitably gets wiped out.  Sometimes perhaps its the bad luck of living on a planet whose star has a short life span, or which has less protection from asteroids.  Or else -- as many believe will happen here -- at a certain point, the dominant "species" on the planet becomes artificial intelligence, and who is to say that AI will have any interest in creating simulations like the ones that are being proposed?  

(Note that of course I understand that all of the above might be simulated -- perhaps the "real universe" is teeming with life.  But then what is the point of this simulation?)

I've heard people say that since humans create video games like "The Sims," we will just keep creating better and better video games as we become more technologically advanced, to the point where we create these kinds of simulations.  But if we are supplanted by AI, who is to say AI will have that instinct?  And what about all the power consumption?  While I suppose the theory is that the "creators" will be able to harness infinite amounts of energy, are they really going to spend it on this, and will this really happen "all the way down" as Tyson suggests?

So the "simulation" theory seems to assume that whatever the dominant species of life on a planet ultimately becomes, it will retain "our" interest in creating video games and will plow all kinds of resources and time into making these kinds of simulations.

For the record I will admit right here that lots of people much smarter than me, who have thought about simulation theory much longer and harder, appear to believe it, so I'm still totally open to changing my mind.  Maybe I just need to understadn the argument better. 

Anyway, to better understand the theory, I asked ChatGPT 3.5 some of the questions I've had, and here are those questions plus its responses:

please explain the theory that we are all living in a simulation to me

ChatGPT

The theory that we are all living in a simulation is a concept derived from both philosophical musings and scientific speculation. It posits that our reality, the universe as we perceive it, is actually a highly sophisticated computer-generated simulation, akin to a video game or virtual reality experience. This theory has gained popularity and traction, particularly in recent years, due to advancements in technology and philosophical discussions on the nature of reality.

Here's a breakdown of some key aspects of this theory:

1. Simulation Hypothesis: At its core, the simulation hypothesis suggests that our reality is not entirely what it seems. Instead, it proposes that an advanced civilization, possibly far more technologically advanced than our own, has created a simulated universe that we inhabit. This could be for various purposes, such as entertainment, research, or even as a way to preserve their own civilization.

2. Technological Advancements: Proponents of the simulation theory often point to the rapid advancements in computer technology and virtual reality. They argue that if humanity continues to progress at its current rate, it's plausible that we could one day create simulations indistinguishable from reality. If we're on the brink of achieving this ourselves, then it's conceivable that a more advanced civilization may have already done so.

3. Philosophical Implications: The simulation hypothesis raises profound philosophical questions about the nature of reality, consciousness, and existence. If our reality is simulated, then what does it mean for concepts like free will, morality, and the nature of consciousness? Some argue that even if our reality is a simulation, our experiences within it are still real to us, prompting debates about the significance of authenticity and perception.

4. Evidence and Arguments: Critics of the simulation hypothesis often point out the lack of empirical evidence directly supporting the theory. However, proponents argue that certain phenomena, such as the fine-tuning of the laws of physics, anomalies in quantum mechanics, or the existence of mathematical patterns in nature, could potentially be explained by a simulated reality. Additionally, they suggest that if our reality is indeed a simulation, the creators would likely implement constraints or limitations to prevent us from discovering the truth.

5. Scientific Exploration: While the simulation hypothesis remains largely speculative, some scientists and researchers have begun to explore it within the context of theoretical physics and cosmology. For example, experiments in quantum mechanics, which often yield counterintuitive results, have led some physicists to consider the possibility of a simulated reality. However, it's important to note that these discussions are still highly theoretical and speculative.

Overall, the theory that we are living in a simulation is a thought-provoking concept that challenges our understanding of reality and raises intriguing questions about the nature of existence. Whether or not it holds true remains to be seen, but it continues to inspire curiosity and discussion among scientists, philosophers, and the general public alike.

You

is evolution part of simulation theory?

ChatGPT

Evolution itself is not explicitly a component of simulation theory in the sense that the theory does not directly address the mechanisms of biological evolution. However, the concept of evolution can still be compatible with the idea of living in a simulated reality.

In a simulated universe, it's conceivable that the creators of the simulation could have programmed the rules and processes that govern biological evolution. Within the simulation, life forms could still evolve through natural selection, genetic mutation, and other mechanisms, much like in our perceived reality.

From this perspective, evolution within a simulated universe would be a natural consequence of the parameters set by the simulation's creators. The inhabitants of the simulated reality, including us, would perceive and experience the effects of evolution, just as we do in our own understanding of the universe.

So while evolution itself may not be a central tenet of simulation theory, it fits within the framework of the theory if one considers that the processes we observe and study in biology could be part of the simulated reality's design.

You

if we are living in a simulation, then how should we understand time?

ChatGPT

Understanding time within the context of a simulated reality can be a complex and speculative endeavor, as it ultimately depends on the nature of the simulation itself and how time is implemented within it. Here are a few ways one might conceptualize time in a simulated universe:

1. Simulation Time: From the perspective of the simulated reality's inhabitants, time would likely appear to progress in a linear fashion, much like in our own experience. Events would unfold sequentially, and individuals within the simulation would perceive the passage of time as they go about their lives.

2. Time Dilation and Simulation Speed: The creators of the simulation could potentially manipulate the flow of time within the simulated universe. Just as in video games where time can be sped up, slowed down, or paused, the simulation's designers might have control over the rate at which time passes relative to the external reality where the simulation is running. This could lead to phenomena such as time dilation, where time appears to pass more slowly or quickly within certain regions or under specific conditions.

3. Simulation Resets and Iterations: Some versions of simulation theory propose that the simulated universe undergoes periodic resets or iterations, wherein the simulation is restarted or altered in some way. From the perspective of the simulated inhabitants, these resets might appear as significant events or shifts in their reality, potentially leading to concepts akin to reincarnation or cycles of time.

4. Simulation Boundary and Timelessness: If the simulated reality is contained within a finite boundary or framework, the nature of time beyond that boundary could be fundamentally different. Timelessness or non-linearity might characterize the external reality where the simulation is housed, leading to philosophical questions about the nature of time and existence.

Ultimately, how time is understood within a simulated reality would depend on the specific parameters and design choices made by the creators of the simulation. It's a topic that invites speculation and philosophical inquiry, as it challenges our conventional understanding of time and raises intriguing questions about the nature of reality itself.

You

in simulation theory, does my dog exist when i am not with him?

ChatGPT

In the context of simulation theory, whether entities such as your dog exist when you are not directly interacting with them depends on the specifics of the simulation's design and programming. Here are a few possible scenarios:

1. Active Simulation: If the simulation is actively rendering and simulating the entire universe, then it's plausible that your dog would continue to exist even when you're not around. In this scenario, the simulation would maintain the state of all entities within it, including your dog, regardless of whether you're observing or interacting with it at any given moment.

2. Selective Rendering: Alternatively, the simulation might employ a form of selective rendering, where entities are only simulated in detail when they are being observed or interacted with by conscious observers (such as yourself). When you're not present, your dog and other entities might exist in a simplified or "dormant" state until you return and interact with them again.

3. Simulation Constraints: The simulation's creators may impose constraints or limitations on the extent to which entities exist independently of observation. For example, your dog might cease to exist or enter a suspended state when not observed, similar to how objects in a video game might disappear when they move out of the player's field of view.

4. Philosophical Interpretations: From a philosophical standpoint, the question of whether your dog exists when you're not with him can lead to debates about the nature of reality and the role of observation in defining existence. Some interpretations of simulation theory might suggest that the concept of existence itself is contingent upon observation or interaction, while others might posit that entities possess an inherent existence within the simulated reality regardless of observation.

Overall, the question of whether your dog exists when you're not with him within a simulated reality is speculative and ultimately depends on the assumptions and parameters of the simulation being considered. It's a fascinating aspect of simulation theory that raises profound questions about consciousness, perception, and the nature of existence.

You

in an "active simulation" (your phrase) does my dog have consciousness?

ChatGPT

In an "active simulation" scenario, whether your dog would possess consciousness depends on the assumptions and design choices made within the framework of the simulation. Here are a few perspectives on this question:

1. Consciousness as Emergent: Some proponents of simulation theory argue that consciousness could emerge within a sufficiently complex simulation, particularly if the simulation accurately models the biological processes and neural networks underlying consciousness in living beings. In this view, your dog within the simulation could potentially exhibit signs of consciousness, including subjective experiences, emotions, and awareness of its environment.

2. Functional Consciousness: Alternatively, the simulation might simulate the appearance of consciousness without the underlying reality. Your dog within the simulation could behave in ways that mimic consciousness, such as responding to stimuli, exhibiting complex behaviors, and displaying emotions, without actually possessing subjective experiences or awareness.

3. Philosophical Considerations: The question of whether entities within a simulated reality possess consciousness raises profound philosophical questions about the nature of consciousness itself. Some argue that consciousness is an inherent aspect of reality that emerges from complex interactions among physical systems, while others propose that consciousness is more than the sum of its physical components and may involve non-material or metaphysical elements.

4. Simulation Constraints: The creators of the simulation may impose constraints on the extent to which entities within the simulation possess consciousness. For example, they might choose to only simulate consciousness in certain entities, such as humans, while other beings, like your dog, may lack consciousness or possess a simplified form of it.

Ultimately, whether your dog within an active simulation possesses consciousness is a speculative question that depends on the assumptions and parameters of the simulation being considered, as well as broader philosophical perspectives on the nature of consciousness and reality. It's a topic that invites exploration and debate, raising intriguing questions about the relationship between mind, matter, and simulated worlds.

You

it seems to me that the "active simulation" theory would require billions of years of time, if all of the individuals in the simulation have the same kind of consciousness that I have. How would that passage of "time" appear to the creators?

ChatGPT

Indeed, in an "active simulation" scenario where all individuals within the simulation possess consciousness similar to yours, the passage of time within the simulation could potentially span billions of years, mirroring the timeline of the simulated universe. From the perspective of the creators of the simulation, however, the passage of time might be fundamentally different.

1. Simulation Time vs. External Time: The creators of the simulation might experience time differently from the inhabitants within the simulated reality. While time within the simulation progresses at its own pace, the external time experienced by the creators, who exist outside the simulated universe, might not be directly tied to the timeline of the simulation. They could perceive time differently or exist in a timeless state relative to the simulation.

2. Simulation Control and Acceleration: The creators might have the ability to manipulate the passage of time within the simulation, accelerating or decelerating its pace as desired. They could fast-forward through long periods of simulated time or pause the simulation altogether to make adjustments or observations. This would allow them to effectively compress billions of years of simulated time into a shorter duration from their perspective.

3. Simulated Time as a Resource: Alternatively, the creators might view simulated time as a resource to be managed or allocated strategically. They could prioritize certain regions or time periods within the simulation for detailed observation or intervention, while allowing other parts to unfold autonomously. This would enable them to focus their attention where it's most needed or interesting without necessarily experiencing every moment of simulated time in real-time.

4. Simulation Resets and Iterations: If the simulation undergoes periodic resets or iterations, as some versions of simulation theory propose, the creators might view the passage of time within each iteration as part of a larger cycle rather than as continuous, linear progression. Each iteration could represent a distinct phase or experiment within the simulation, with its own timeline and set of events.

Overall, how the passage of time within the simulation appears to the creators depends on the nature of the simulation itself, as well as the capabilities and perspectives of the beings responsible for its creation. It's a speculative and intriguing aspect of simulation theory that raises questions about the relationship between simulated realities and the external realities that give rise to them.

You

My understanding is that if I am part of an active simulation, I am just computer code. How can computer code achieve the kind of consciousness and apparent self-awareness that I experience?

ChatGPT

The question of how computer code could give rise to consciousness and self-awareness is one of the most challenging and debated topics in both philosophy of mind and artificial intelligence. Here are a few perspectives on this question:

1. Emergence: One possibility is that consciousness emerges from sufficiently complex patterns of information processing, even within a simulated environment. This view suggests that consciousness is not solely dependent on the specific physical substrate (such as neurons in a biological brain) but can arise from the interaction and organization of information within a system. In this scenario, the intricate interactions among simulated entities, governed by the rules and processes encoded in the simulation's code, could give rise to consciousness as an emergent phenomenon.

2. Functionalism: Another perspective, known as functionalism, proposes that consciousness is a function of the information processing performed by a system, rather than the specific physical components of that system. From this viewpoint, as long as a system processes information in a way that mirrors the functional aspects of consciousness (such as perception, cognition, and self-awareness), it could be considered conscious, regardless of its underlying substrate. In a simulated environment, the code could be designed to implement the necessary functional processes associated with consciousness, leading to simulated entities that exhibit conscious-like behavior.

3. Philosophical Considerations: The question of whether computer code can achieve consciousness also raises broader philosophical questions about the nature of mind and the relationship between consciousness and physical reality. Some argue that consciousness is inherently tied to biological processes and cannot be replicated by purely computational means. Others propose that consciousness is a fundamental aspect of reality that can arise in various forms, including within simulated environments.

4. Simulation Realism: From a perspective rooted in simulation theory, proponents might argue that if the simulation is sufficiently detailed and accurate, the entities within it could exhibit behaviors indistinguishable from those of conscious beings. Whether or not these simulated entities possess true consciousness in the same sense as biological beings is a matter of interpretation and philosophical debate.

Overall, the question of whether computer code can achieve consciousness remains an open and complex issue, with no definitive answers at present. It's a topic that spans multiple disciplines, including philosophy, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence, and continues to inspire speculation and inquiry into the nature of mind and consciousness.